Even as the city is reporting more than 1,000 cases daily, civic officials say the rise is on expected lines, but may not touch 45,000 cases, as projected by the end of May.
On Friday, the city saw its sharpest single-day jump in cases (1,751), which took the count to 27,251. Twenty-seven new deaths took the toll to 909. The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) claims the rate of spread has slowed down owing to focus on testing, rigorous contact-tracing and timely detection of cases. “The projections are based on the doubling rate. In April, we had projected around 70,000 to 75,000 cases, when the doubling rate was seven days, however, gradually we managed to increase the doubling rate to 14 days. Further, we projected 45,000 cases, when the doubling rate was 10 days, and now we are projecting less than 45,000 cases when our doubling rate is between 12 and 14 days,” said a BMC official. “For the past four days, the city is seeing between 1,100 and 1,500 cases, and the same trend is expected to continue in the coming days.”
At the current pace, the number of total cases by the end of May could be around 37,500, if 1,200 cases are reported daily, and 40,000, if the number goes up to 1,500 cases daily. As of Thursday, 1.50 lakh tests were conducted in the city.
Daksha Shah, deputy executive health officer at BMC, said, “We have been able to contain the spread with not just testing, but also contact-tracing, which is why the number of cases could be fewer than the projected 45,000. We have taken efforts to control the spread, considering the actual projection earlier was 75,000.”
Shah further added, “By the end of May, the tot